It must be realized that the present food crisis is not the result of a limited 'policy of miscalculation' but the indication of a long-term failure in the functioning of the world food system
World Food Day was observed on October 16 and world leaders raised concerns regarding food insecurity threats compounded by the current economic crisis. Nothing is older than man’s struggle for food. It is surprising that today the situation of food availability has become very precarious amidst the scientific progress man has achieved over the past few centuries to acquire control over the forces of nature. As per the World Economic Forum, food insecurity now lies at the centre of the global nexus of risks — disaster risk, energy prices, climate change and declining water supplies. At present, according to UN estimates, almost one billion people are suffering from chronic hunger. But this number leaves out those suffering from vitamin and nutrient deficiencies and other forms of malnutrition. The total number of food-insecure people who are malnourished or lacking critical nutrients is probably closer to three billion. The FAO reports that another 100 million will plunge into the category of people who do not have access to nutritious food. The situation becomes critical for the poor who spend a big chunk of their meagre income on food.
The world food crisis is the outcome of the surge in food prices, which has taken food essentials out of the reach of the common man. Corn prices began to rise in 2006 and soared by some 70 percent. Wheat prices also skyrocketed during this time and reached record levels.
The interplay of various factors helps to explain the jump in food prices. One, the major wheat-producing countries are experiencing drought and the area under cultivation of food crops has shrunk. Weather disturbances have wreaked havoc in some countries. Two years ago a cyclone in Bangladesh destroyed its rice crop worth approximately $ 600 million, leading to price increases of 70 percent. In various countries like Australia and China, the water supply has been disrupted because of changing climate patterns. The world is heading for a drop in agricultural production of about 20 to 40 percent and the food producing nations are imposing export restrictions.
Two, soaring food prices are directly related to the increase in petroleum prices. Many of the inputs used for large-scale commercial agricultural production are based on petroleum and natural gas, from running tractors and harvesting equipment to producing fertilizers and pesticides. Moreover the spike in fuel prices has led the western countries to divert corn crops for the production of bio-fuels in order to cater to their mammoth energy demand.
Three, the middle-income population in China and India has grown and people in these countries are now able to buy more food. As more people compete for food, the price goes up. Four, the global economic downturn has aggravated the food crisis in various ways, principally by lowering the purchasing power of destitute consumers through the loss of jobs. It has also reduced investment in agriculture aimed at increasing production.
Here it would be unjust to overlook the Malthusian theory of the relationship between population and resources. He argued that the growth of human resources takes place in arithmetic progression whilst the population increases in geometrical progression. With the world population projected to reach nine billion by 2050, the current pace of agricultural production will not feed the increasing mouths in the years to come, especially in developing countries where there is a high birth rate. Malthus, in his Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), wrote, “The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the difficulty of subsistence.” His argument is very relevant in the present situation when a large number of children die every day because of the lack of an adequate diet.
In a number of countries people have reacted to the increasing food prices by reducing purchase of non-food items. Children have been taken out of school and purchases of medicine have declined. The exorbitant food prices have also spurred riots and demonstrations in nearly two dozen countries and thus have threatened political stability in weak democracies.
There is a dire need to forge a practicable plan to resolve the food crisis. The Comprehensive Framework for Action (CFA) prepared by the UN-established High Level Task Force on the global food security crisis stipulates a two-pronged strategy: 1) Meeting the immediate needs of vulnerable segments of the population by means of providing emergency food assistance, spreading safety nets, the provision of agricultural inputs and taking steps to manage the macro-economic implications of food prices. 2) Building longer-term resilience by increasing food production, especially by household farmers and managing food stocks more efficiently.
The action on these two fronts as envisaged in the above mentioned CFA plan would go a long way in bailing the world out of the food crisis. Moreover this crisis should be turned into an opportunity by undertaking massive investments in agricultural development. Investments in agriculture should be directed towards accelerating the flow of research-based innovations, which are essential for achieving sustainable growth in productivity and adapting agriculture to climate change.
It must be realized that the present food crisis is not the result of a limited ‘policy of miscalculation’ but the indication of a long-term failure in the functioning of the world food system. The devising of a new world food system is the need of the hour, which must include an innovative framework for coordinating national responses. The policy makers are faced with a challenge to realize the urgency of the situation and embark on practical solutions to combat the looming threat of world hunger.
The writer is an advocate. He can be reached at naumanlawyer@gmail.com
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